Big trends: replacing dangerous chemicals with bioeconomy solutions

This is an overview of the article collections in this vault. Each collection covers a sector where hazardous chemicals are still widely used and matches them with alternatives that are already proven in practice: microbes, enzymes, vaccines, beneficial organisms, bio-based materials, fermentation products, genetics and ecological management. Every article has the same structure: the chemical problem → the alternative → composition → key facts → advantages → mode of action → application → limitations → peer-reviewed evidence → bioeconomy value. Each folder also has a README index with a “skipped” list for hazards that have no proven biological substitute yet.

Evidence check (2026-10-06): see DISRUPTION-EVIDENCE.md. “Proven in practice” means the alternatives work; whether they have displaced the old process is a separate question. With verified, hand-reviewed sources, 29 of 168 substitutions show displacement at scale (D3 — e.g. fermentation chymosin 80–90% of the US/UK coagulant market, Norwegian salmon antibiotics down from ~50 t to 1–2 t after vaccines, US MTBE replaced by ethanol, two-step fermentation behind >80% of world vitamin C, Denmark’s gas ~40% biomethane, SPF shrimp >90% of Thai and Indian farmed shrimp; evidence-first articles added 2026-10-06: citric acid >99% by fermentation, HFCS >96% of US beverage sweetener, screwworm eradicated USA–Panama by sterile flies, prickly pear cleared from ~24 M ha by a moth, biological nematicides ~75% of Brazil’s market, biomass >70% of Swedish district heat), 43 show measurable minority displacement (D2), and 90 work but their displacement was not shown by the sources found (D1).

Business models (2026-10-06): see BUSINESS-MODELS.md — how Novozymes/Novonesis and 26 other mature bioeconomy companies earn money replacing chemistry (value-priced drop-in process aids, high R&D, long-term owners), and why synbio platforms like Amyris and Zymergen failed.

Government grants as a leading indicator: see GOVERNMENT-GRANTS-SIGNALS.md. Every article has a “Government funding signals” section covering the EU, USA, UK and Australia (grants) and China, Brazil and India (grant-funded publications).
References were checked against Crossref and PubMed. See REFERENCE-VERIFICATION.md.
Written from the published literature and regulatory records known up to 2026. References were selected conservatively, but check the citations, product registrations and national rules (in Russia: the Ministry of Agriculture pesticide catalogue, the Rosselkhoznadzor veterinary and feed registers, Rospotrebnadzor, and EAEU technical regulations) before practical use or publication.

The collections#

Folder	Sector	Articles	Headline substitutions
`soyuzagrohim-2026-english/alternatives/`	Crop protection and fertilizers (SoyuzAgroHim catalog)	39	Bacterial seed dressings, Contans against Sclerotinia, Bt, viruses and Trichogramma, Metarhizium against locusts, rhizobia
`veterinary/`	Livestock, poultry, bees	13	Probiotics and vaccines instead of antibiotics and ZnO, worm-trapping fungus instead of ivermectin, organic acids against Varroa
`fishery/`	Aquaculture	7	Fish vaccines (Norway: more than 99 % less antibiotic per kg of fish), cleaner fish, biofloc
`postrawfood/`	Post-harvest raw food	6	Antagonistic yeasts, mint-oil sprout control, phages and nisin, ethylene instead of carbide
`ecology/`	Environment, towns, households	14	Bti, Wolbachia, oil bioremediation, constructed wetlands, beneficial nematodes, modified wood
`forestry/`	Forest protection	3	Bt and viruses against the Siberian silk moth, Phlebiopsis stump treatment, bark-beetle sanitation
`mining/`	Mining and metallurgy	3	Gold biooxidation (Olimpiada, Russia), copper bioleaching, passive mine-water bioreactors
`textiles-leather/`	Leather and textiles	3	Vegetable/olive-leaf tanning and enzymes instead of chromium and sulfide, enzyme denim finishing, biological dye effluent treatment
`packaging-plastics/`	Packaging and plastics	4	PFAS-free fibre packaging, bio-plasticizers instead of phthalates, biodegradable mulch film, bio-based/biodegradable commodity plastics
`construction/`	Building materials	3	Soy/tannin/lignin adhesives instead of formaldehyde, bio-based insulation, self-healing bio-concrete
`industrial-chemistry/`	Chemical and process industry	6	Bio-solvents instead of NMP/DMF/DCM, biocatalysis, bio-lubricants, nitrate against souring, enzyme pulp bleaching
`energy/` ⚑	Energy and fuels	6	Biogas, fermentation ethanol, biodiesel/HVO/SAF, landfill-gas biomethane, residue pellets instead of coal
`water/` ⚑	Water and wastewater	6	Biological treatment and bio-coagulants; farm nitrate runoff by biology; enzyme/phage biofilm control; produced-water biology
`food-ingredients/` ⚑	Food ingredients	12	Fermentation colours, natural sweeteners, natural antioxidants, fermentation vitamins, FPC rennet
`feed/` ⚑	Feed and feed ingredients	6	Phytase/amino acids, insect/SCP protein, organic acids vs formaldehyde, mycotoxin enzymes, yeast postbiotics
`cosmetics/` ⚑	Cosmetics and personal care	3	Fermentation squalane/HA/collagen, biodegradable scrub particles, biosurfactant cleansing
`paints-coatings/` ⚑	Paints and coatings	2	Bio-based binders/solvents vs petro-VOC systems; isothiazolinone reduction
`fertilizers-nutrition/` ◆	Fertilizers and plant nutrition	4	Seaweed/hydrolysate biostimulants, Azospirillum for cereals, digestate/frass/organo-mineral fertilizers, struvite instead of Cd-bearing rock P
`seeds-genetics/` ◆	Seeds and genetics	4	Resistant varieties instead of fungicide programmes, Bt crops, PRRS-resistant pigs, disease-resistant salmon and shrimp lines
`waste-circular/` ◆	Waste and circular bioeconomy	4	Straw into soil and bio-CNG instead of burning, BSF larvae and composting instead of landfill, biological sludge stabilization
`remediation/` ◆	Soil and air remediation	3	Landfarming/biopiles for oily soil, phytostabilization of tailings, biofilters instead of chemical scrubbers
`livestock-emissions/` ◆	Livestock emissions	2	Asparagopsis and plant additives against enteric methane; digestion, low-protein diets and biofilters for manure
`diagnostics/` ◆	Diagnostics and decision support	2	Test-then-treat in livestock and aquaculture; disease forecasting, spore traps and pest monitoring
`alt-proteins/` ◆	Alternative proteins	2	Precision-fermented dairy proteins, mycoprotein, plant-based and cultivated meat (indirect substitution — Partial/Watchlist)
`cea-horticulture/` ◆	Protected horticulture	4	Peat-free growing media; grafting, biological soil disinfestation and soilless culture instead of fumigants
`biorefining/` ◆	Sugar, starch and palm biorefining	2	Fermentation lactic/succinic/BDO/bio-MEG; vinasse, filter cake and POME to gas and fertilizer
`equipment/` ◆	Bioproduction and processing equipment	3	On-farm biofactories, fermentation and downstream equipment, digesters/composting/pellet/pyrolysis plants (enabling infrastructure)
`carbon-removal/` ◆	Carbon removal (biochar)	2	Residue biochar for soils and carbon-removal credits; biochar in compost, manure, feed and water
`digital-robotics/` ◆	Bioinformatics, drones, robots, sensing	3	Genomic selection instead of progeny testing, spraying drones, drone release of beneficial insects (robotic weeding and spot spraying screened — adoption not yet proven)

Total: 152 articles in 28 collections (121 earlier: 90 first wave + 25 of the 2026-09 second wave + 6 in the 2026-09-29 update; +26 in the third wave, 2026-10-01: 9 new collections ◆ with 24 articles, plus FI07 baking enzymes and FI08 enzymatic oil processing in food-ingredients/). On 2026-10-02 equipment/ (owner decision) and carbon-removal/ (derived from the bioecon.ru cluster comparison) added 5 articles. Third-wave review and decision: RUBRIC-GAPS.md.

Earlier total line, kept for history: Total: 121 articles (90 first wave + 25 of the 2026-09 second wave + 6 in the 2026-09-29 update: A37 pheromones; FD06 gas-fermented SCP; F07 phage therapy; I06 biosurfactants; P06 edible coatings; FI06 microalgal omega-3).

⚑ Second wave (2026-09-27). The five flagged collections were chosen from the 1,320-company vendor index (ALL_COMPANIES.csv): energy = 146 active suppliers, water = 112, food ingredients ≈ 170, feed = 226, bioplastics = 74, cosmetics = 21. Their articles add a “Suppliers” section that names real vendors from the index — the join from “bioeconomy idea” to “real-world products and services”. Status: journal references of all 8 second-wave articles checked against Crossref (2026-09-27; one correction applied — Bond & Templeton 2011); the grants-signal pass is still pending. Next candidates: feed/ FD03–FD05, cosmetics/ CM02–CM03, energy/ EN03–EN05, water/ W02–W04, food-ingredients/ FI02–FI05.

Eight big trends#

From killing to steering living systems. The strongest successes do not use a “green poison”. They manage biology: competitive exclusion (probiotic chicks, bacterial seed dressings, nitrate in oil reservoirs), natural enemies (Trichogramma, cleaner fish, barn owls), and host immunity and genetics (vaccines, resistant varieties, disease-resistant fish, Varroa-resistant bees).
The end of prophylactic chemistry. Blanket treatments (antibiotic growth promoters, dry-cow tubes, neonicotinoid seed coatings, whole-flock ivermectin) are replaced by diagnose → threshold → targeted treatment. The Veneto wireworm insurance fund and Dutch selective dry-cow therapy show that information is an input.
One Health and antimicrobial resistance drive change in livestock, aquaculture and household biocides (colistin/mcr-1, ZnO co-selection, QACs, triclosan). Regulations: EU Regulation 2019/6 on veterinary medicines, China’s colistin ban, the US FDA 2016 ruling on antibacterial soaps.
Persistent chemicals under global restriction: PFAS, phthalates, HBCDD, PCP, CCA, chlorpyrifos, mancozeb, neonicotinoids. The EU’s non-renewals act as a leading indicator for exporters, including Russian exporters of grain, timber, plywood, fish and leather.
Fermentation as the new chemical plant. Enzymes (detergents, textiles, pulp, pharma), microbial pesticides, vaccines, bioplastics (PHA, PLA), bio-solvents (lactate), and mycotoxin-detoxifying enzymes. Russia has strong strain collections (VIZR, VKM, ARRIAM) and Soviet-era biofactory traditions (Trichogramma, Bt) to build on.
Biomining and bioremediation for heavy industry. Gold biooxidation, copper bioleaching, oil-spill bioremediation and passive mine-water treatment. This is a field where Russia already operates world-scale biotech (the Olimpiada BIOX plant) and has large remediation needs (West Siberian oil soils, Norilsk, Karabash, Baikalsk).
Residues and by-products as feedstock. Straw, bark tannins, olive leaves, beet molasses, citrus peel, crustacean shells, sawmill residues and pulp lignin become adhesives, insulation, deicers, coatings, sprout suppressants and solvents.
Nature-based infrastructure. Constructed wetlands, biobeds, flower strips, lake biomanipulation, bio-concrete and modified wood: engineering that works with biology instead of against it.

Emerging (watchlist, not yet covered as “proven”)#

RNA-based biopesticides (sprayable dsRNA): e.g. ledprona against Colorado potato beetle (registered by the US EPA in 2023). Promising, but early field record.
Precision fermentation of animal proteins, fats and dyes (bio-indigo, microbial pigments).
Mycelium materials (leather alternatives, packaging, insulation).
Phage therapy in livestock and aquaculture beyond food processing.
Biosurfactants (rhamnolipids, sophorolipids) at commodity scale.
Cosmetics: UV filters, preservatives and microplastic substitutes. Not covered because the evidence for bio-substitutes is still weak.
Gas fermentation (C1 feedstocks): steel off-gas, CO2 and methane turned into proteins and chemicals (LanzaTech, String Bio).
Chitin & chitosan from shellfish and insect streams: films, sorbents and plant-defence uses.
Biochar & pyrolytic carbon: soil carbon, filtration and carbon-removal markets.
Semiochemicals beyond orchards: fermentation-made pheromones extending into row crops (Provivi).

Tech-stack cross-check (2026-09-29). The topic tree and this watchlist were compared against the 635-technology index at en.bioecon.ru/technology. Result: 8 new topics + 7 keyword-rule extensions added, construction left the rubric gap list. See TECH-STACK-MAP.md.

Where the bioeconomy does NOT yet have an answer (honest gaps)#

Selective in-crop herbicides, late blight and cereal rusts under high pressure, cattle respiratory-disease metaphylaxis, PFAS remediation, chrome plating, bisphenol can linings, asbestos legacy, mercury in artisanal gold. These are listed in each folder’s “skipped” section.